Taskmaster (200)
Ant Man (400)
Black Panther (400)
Cable (400)
Colossus (400)
Electra (400)
Gambit (400)
Green Goblin (400)
Hulk (400)
Ice Man (400)
Iron Fist (400)
Magneto (400)
Nightcrawler (400)
She Hulk (400)
Silver Surfer (400)
Star Lord (400)
Vision (400)
War Machine (400)
Wolverine (400)
Dr. Doom (600)
So that's who I have left.
To pure splinter unlock it all, that's 400 x 20, because one 600 and one 200. So that would be 8,000 splinters to fully unlock everything.
If I were to get lucky 20 times with the random hero box, it would take 20 buys, or 3,500 splinters to get all 20.
The odds of getting a new hero are low, but... ok so 3,500 + 3,500 is 7,000. Ten plays with the random box is 1,750. 5 plays is 875, 6 plays is 1,050.
So that means I would have 46 tries at a random hero, until it cost more randoming than just buying.
I already have 37 heroes. So it's about a 1/3 chance at a new one. A bit better than that actually. 20/57.
Also noteworthy is getting a dupe doesn't give me nothing, it gives me a hero token. Figuring out which hero tokens have value to me is more math.
So, of the 20 heroes I don't have, which new heroes would be duds? Well, getting a new hero period would be a victory with the odds so stacked against me, but... let's see, I suppose mathematically Dr. Doom would be a critical success, and Taskmaster would be the worst good outcome, purely because of the values associated with them.
I have Skins unlocked for - Cable, Hulk, Iron Fist, Nightcrawler, War Machine, and Star Lord.
If I were to save and buy, well I've heard good things about Electra.
Saving also guarantees tempo, which is a thing I guess.
I think... even though the odds are against me, the math says I should still get a random box, since I don't get nothing for losing, and there's still a chance of getting the 600 splinter hero for 175. A 200 for 175 is the worst instance of good fortune.
I would say the worst thing I could get would be a Luke Cage token, since I hate him.
Ok, I've convinced myself, gambling time.
At least for a few more heroes, then it's the 400 splinter buys.